Having become interested in football again due to the World Cup, I was thinking about Predictaball and how I never wrapped up the season with a brief review.
It’s been a big season for Predictaball, with the move to an Elo-based system, as well as the launch of a website. However, is the new match forecasting method any good?
Model accuracy Fortunately, to help answer this question, a very generous Twitter user by the name of Alex B has been collecting weekly Premiership match predictions from around 30 models and tracked their progress.
A month ago I mentioned that I’d been using a discrete event simulation for estimating transition probabilities from parametric multi-state models. I’ve now turned this code into a general package containing resources for multi-state modelling, called multistateutils (I know, I’m very imaginative) which may be of interest to other people working with multi-state models in R. The current release is available on CRAN, while the development is still on GitHub.
I’m very happy to announce the first ‘official’ release of version 1.0.0 of rprev, the R package for estimating disease prevalence by simulation. This is useful for epidemiologists who have registry data and want to know disease prevalence from time periods longer than is covered by the registry. I first released it almost exactly two years ago but had always intended to update it with the features in this release.